Energy and commodities analysis for the Middle East, Asia and Africa, built on the published work of the intergovernmental agencies.
Only prices published by the agencies themselves appear here. Commercial assessments from the price reporting agencies are deliberately absent, so this board is narrower than a trading screen and is not a substitute for one.
| Measure | Value | Period | Published by |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC Reference BasketWeighted average of member export grades, $/bbl | 103.19 | September, month to date | OPEC Secretariat |
| OPEC Reference BasketMonthly average, $/bbl | 86.42 | August | OPEC Secretariat |
| Brent spot, forecastSecond half of 2026, $/bbl | ~90 | Forecast | EIA |
| Brent spot, forecast2027 annual average, $/bbl | ~74 | Forecast | EIA |
Lead
OPEC's September assessment trimmed its view of world demand growth for 2026 to 380,000 barrels a day, the fifth consecutive cut, while keeping the year firmly in positive territory and raising its expectation for 2027. The IEA, reporting in the same week, put the year 2.5 million barrels a day below 2025 — a downgrade of 940,000 barrels a day against its own August figure.
The two institutions are describing the same conflict and reaching outcomes almost three million barrels a day apart. Both attribute the revision to the same cause: the unresolved negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and what that means for the timing of normal flows.
The IEA expects the decline to moderate through the year, easing from 5.3 million barrels a day in the second quarter to 3.4 million in the third and 2 million in the fourth, before a recovery of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2027 roughly cancels this year's losses. Its losses are concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, and fall most heavily on Asia.
Read side by side, the two monthly reports are the clearest available measure of how uncertain this market has become.
The producer group now expects world demand to expand by 380,000 barrels a day across 2026 and has raised its 2027 growth figure. It continues to read the consumption effect of the war as milder than other forecasters do.
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report · 10 September 2026
Demand is put at 2.5 million barrels a day below last year, a cut of 940,000 barrels a day from the August edition. The agency ties the revision to stalled US-Iran negotiations pushing any normalisation of flows into next year, and expects 2027 to recover by 2.6 million barrels a day.
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026 · public highlights
The contraction is not evenly spread. Middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks absorb most of it, and Asia absorbs most of that. Higher fuel prices, diesel in particular, continue to suppress consumption alongside the physical shortfall in product supply.
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
Brent is expected to average around $90 a barrel across the second half of this year, then ease to about $74 a barrel through 2027 as production recovers and stocks are rebuilt. August averaged $91, seven dollars above July.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook · 9 September 2026
Quota decisions have become close to irrelevant to actual barrels while Gulf output sits shut in.
Global production fell by 1.6 million barrels a day month on month in August, to 100.1 million, on security grounds. For 2026 as a whole, total supply is expected to fall by 5.7 million barrels a day to 100.7 million, with the Gulf recovery now pushed into next year and an 8 million barrel a day rebound projected for 2027.
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
The IEA's Americas Quintet accounts for the bulk of non-OPEC+ expansion, adding 1.4 million barrels a day this year and a further million next.
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
Seven members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — met by videoconference on 6 September and made no change for October. Monthly meetings continue.
OPEC statement · 6 September 2026
September's 188,000 barrel a day adjustment completed the unwinding of the additional voluntary cuts first announced in 2023. A separate set of reductions covering the wider alliance runs to the end of 2026, and cannot be unwound until members agree sustainable capacity baselines for 2027.
OPEC statement · 2 August 2026
Regional production is expected to rise as transit through Hormuz improves and alternative routes carry more volume, but export limits are assumed to hold through year-end, leaving Middle East output beneath pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook · 9 September 2026
Stocks have done the balancing so far. That buffer is visibly thinning.
Observed global inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels, an average draw of 2.8 million barrels a day. August alone accounted for 95 million barrels, a rate of 3.1 million a day. OECD stocks rose by 23 million barrels over the month, running against the global direction.
IEA Oil Market Report, September 2026
Distillate inventories are forecast to drop below 100 million barrels during September and to stay beneath the five-year low for much of 2027.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook · 9 September 2026
Imports fell to 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter, 32% below the first, with May and June below 8 million for the first time since 2016. Refinery runs fell by less than imports did, which implies stock draws. The steepest declines by origin were Iraq, Russia and the UAE.
EIA, Today in Energy · 31 July 2026
The GECF record is solid through the spring and then stops. Recent months are missing from this page, and that matters more in gas than anywhere else right now.
Global imports fell 10% year on year in April to 31.5 million tonnes, a second consecutive monthly decline and the weakest month since September 2023. Asia took most of the hit, down 13% year on year to its lowest since April 2020, led by weaker Chinese and South Korean buying.
GECF Monthly Gas Market Report, May 2026 edition, covering April data
Middle East gas production fell more than a third year on year in April, concentrated in Qatar, the UAE and Iran. Continued North American growth, led by the United States, offset part of the global effect.
GECF Monthly Gas Market Report, May 2026 edition
Global LNG trade reached a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, a rise of 27 million tonnes and the largest annual increase since 2019. European imports grew by 29 million tonnes to 130 million while Asian imports fell 8 million to 273 million, leaving Asia with 63% of world imports and Europe 30%. A further 241 million tonnes a year of liquefaction capacity is expected between 2026 and 2030, led by the United States and Qatar.
GECF Annual Gas Market Report 2026
The Gulf's share of world urea exports makes the strait a food security question as much as an energy one.
The World Bank's fertilizer price index rose more than 12% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026, its sixth increase in seven quarters, and by April stood at its highest since October 2022. Export disruption tied to the closure of the strait was identified as the main driver.
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026
Urea passed $850 a tonne in April, an 80% rise since February. The World Bank projected a gain of close to 60% across 2026 before an easing in 2027 as Middle East exports recover and gas costs moderate, with the risks weighted towards further increases.
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026
Diammonium phosphate rose more than 10% in April after a stable start to the year, driven by tighter supply and input costs — sulphur had doubled since January — compounded by tighter Chinese export policy.
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026